Election results determine winners and losers in electoral contests, and are the basis for allocating seats in many electoral systems. They also provide the evidence that supports or undermines citizens’ trust in the fairness of the electoral process. For this reason, it is essential that elections be held in a way that can be trusted and verified by the public, including by election observers and the media.
Achieving this goal requires that election officials be transparent in their communications with the public about when election results will be final and certified. This includes announcing unofficial results on election night, and providing information to the public about the various steps that must take place before that happens (e.g., counting of ballots, canvassing, a recount, and certification). It is also important that the media and other sources be factual and balanced in their reporting on the election, rather than exaggerating or sensationalizing headlines.
Previous research has shown that electoral expectations are influenced by partisan biases, and that disconfirmation is jointly influenced by one’s expectation or forecast (link 1.a) and the outcome of the election (link 1.b). A disappointing outcome will lead to lower satisfaction with democracy, but the exact nature of this response will depend on the magnitude of the surprise and voters’ perceptions of how well their expectations were met. For example, if an unexpected result leads to greater satisfaction with democracy than expected, it may reduce perceived electoral integrity but not the desire for electoral reform.
